War, Costs, and Expectations: Operations Desert Storm and Iraqi Freedom

       Much ink has been devoted to the national security rationale behind the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003, and for good reason.  The assertions that Saddam Hussein possessed a growing arsenal of weapons of mass destruction, and that his regime provided meaningful support to al-Qaeda and other international terrorist groups, are acknowledged by all but the war’s most die-hard supporters to be untrue.  The arguments for invading Iraq that were convincing to so many Americans proved hollow, and it is no surprise that they have been the subject of considerable scrutiny. 

       Considerably less attention has been paid to pre-war expectations about the war’s outcome.  In many ways this is understandable.  In contrast to the Bush administration’s repeated declarations about the danger posed by Saddam Hussein during the lead up to war, its statements about the potential human and financial costs were relatively few.  Still, the unexpectedly difficult occupation has negatively affected how the American public views the original decision to go to war.  In polling of U.S. public opinion dating back to the beginning of the invasion of Iraq, the Washington Post and ABC News have asked, “Considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not?”  In June 2008, only 34 percent of respondents answered yes; 63 percent stated that the war had not been worth the sacrifices it has entailed.[1]  Other opinion polls have produced similar results.  With more than four thousand American lives lost in Iraq and the number of wounded estimated to be in the tens of thousands, this sentiment is not surprising.  However, it begs the question: what were the prevailing expectations in 2002 and 2003 about how events would unfold once the shooting started?  How were those expectations derived, and what role have they played in both the public debate that preceded the war and current public perceptions about the conflict?