On February 9, the Senate Armed Services Committee and the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence each held hearings on worldwide threats facing the United States. Testimony was provided by James Clapper, U.S. Director of National Intelligence.
For the fourth year in a row, Clapper’s written report opens with a discussion of U.S. vulnerabilities in the realms of cyber and information technology. This section differs significantly from last year’s assessment, which downplayed the likelihood of a “Cyber Armageddon” and stated that the United States was more likely to be faced with ongoing low- to moderate-scale cyber attacks. The new report warns that the growing prevalence of “smart devices” that can interact with one another and the increasing complexity of information networks “could lead to widespread vulnerabilities in civilian infrastructures and US Government systems.” It adds that while artificial intelligence is in many ways still in its infancy, use of AI is likely to become more and more pervasive in the coming years. This, too, will create new vulnerabilities to cyber attacks, according to the report. Deterring cyber intrusions will continue to be very difficult in part, at least, because of the difficulty of determining the source of a cyber attack in a timely manner.
Clapper’s assessment then goes on to examine the threat posed by international terrorism. Notably, this section is three times longer than it was in last year’s report. In his 2015 statement, Clapper mentioned the Islamic State as one of a growing number of Sunni extremist groups in the Middle East and elsewhere, but he emphasized that such groups are divided and generally more focused on “local concerns” than attacking the West. In this year’s statement, Clapper singles out the Islamic State as “the preeminent terrorist threat because of its self-described caliphate in Syria and Iraq, its branches and emerging branches in other countries, and its increasing ability to direct and inspire attacks against a wide range of targets around the world.” The report also discusses the continuing threat posed by al Qaeda and its affiliates, particularly al Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula located in Yemen. It notes, however, that the biggest threat to the U.S. homeland comes from lone wolves in the United States – known as Homegrown Violent Extremists, or HVEs – who are inspired to act by propaganda from the Islamic State or other Sunni extremist groups.
The new report also indicates that the U.S. will increasingly be challenged by state-based threats. According to Clapper, “Emerging trends suggest that geopolitical competition among the major powers is increasing in ways that challenge international norms and institutions.” He singles out Russia and China as two nations that are likely to continue to assert greater influence in their respective regions, though he states that neither country is likely to seek a direct confrontation with the United States. The two other nations mentioned that pose direct challenges to U.S. interests are Iran and North Korea.
Clapper’s testimony cites Russia’s behavior as particularly concerning. It notes, alarmingly, that Russian involvement in the Syrian and Ukrainian civil wars will continue and are part of Russia’s broader effort to become “the uncontested regional hegemon in Eurasia.” According to Clapper, Moscow is committed to pursuing “an assertive foreign policy” while at the same time taking steps to modernize its military. His report also points out that while President Vladimir Putin is extremely popular in Russia, the regime remains very concerned about the threat of internal unrest, particularly in the context of the nation’s sagging economy. Moscow is also waging an unprecedented information warfare campaign at a global level intended to demonize and discredit the U.S. and its Western allies.
The section on China is relatively short – only three paragraphs – which is somewhat surprising in light of the fact that it is the second most powerful nation in the world and the fact that the U.S. and China have embarked on a competitive relationship. The report predicts that China “will continue to pursue an active foreign policy,” particularly in the Asia Pacific where it faces territorial disputes with other nations in the region. The phrase “active foreign policy” is unfortunately pretty vague, and the flashpoints in the South and East China Seas are mentioned only in passing as a source of ongoing tension. The assessment explains that while China “will continue to incrementally increase its global presence,” it is facing many major domestic challenges. Specifically, the leadership in Beijing is reacting to a long term slowdown in economic growth while simultaneously pursuing an array of economic, legal, and military reforms, a situation that has the potential to lead to significant “internal friction” within China’s Communist Party.
Clapper’s report also states that North Korea will continue to pose a significant threat to the U.S. and its allies due to its weapons of mass destruction, including its nuclear arsenal, and its ballistic missile program. The intelligence community believes that Pyongyang did in fact conduct a nuclear test last month, but that North Korea’s claims that the weapon was a thermonuclear bomb is likely untrue. It also assesses that North Korea has restarted its production of plutonium and expanded its uranium enrichment facility at Yongbyon. The report does not include any assessment of the stability of the North Korean regime.
The report also features a lengthy discussion on Iran. According to the assessment, Iran has abided by the commitments it made in July 2015 to limit its nuclear program in exchange for relief from international economic sanctions. As a result, the length of time it would take for Iran to build a nuclear weapon has gone from a few months before the nuclear deal was reached to one full year. Clapper’s report notes that the agreement has significantly increased the transparency of Iran’s nuclear program in a way that makes it difficult for Iran to cheat on the agreement and without being detected. That said, Iran still represents a threat to U.S. interests because of its opposition to U.S. influence in the Middle East, its support for terrorist groups in the Middle East, and its backing of the regime of Bashar Assad in Syria. Hardliners in Iran, including the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, have made clear that they will oppose any efforts by Iranian president Hassan Rouhani to improve relations with the United States.
In his oral testimony, Clapper stated that the Islamic State seeks not just to inspire lone wolf attacks in the U.S. but to strike directly at the American homeland. This statement was not included in his written testimony, so it’s unclear whether it reflects the judgement of the intelligence community or is simply Clapper’s own opinion. He added that in order to overcome the Islamic State the U.S.-led coalition should continue to put pressure on the group on multiple fronts, including aerial bombardment and efforts to deny them sources of revenue.
Speaking more broadly, Clapper emphasized that the U.S. is facing a very broad array of national security challenges, a theme that he (and others in the intelligence community) has highlighted for the last several years. Specifically, he told members on the Senate Armed Services Committee that “unpredictable instability has become the new normal and this trend will continue for the foreseeable future.”
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